class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Severance, parallels and integration ## 🚗🚌🚲🚶
methods for assessing the active travel impacts of major transport infrastructure projects ### Robin Lovelace, Malcolm Morgan, Craig Morton, Anna Goodman ### Cycling and Society, Bristol
2018-09-06 --- <!-- The background of this research is the huge impact major transport infrastructure projects such as HS2 will have on walking and cycling and the lack of evidence and established methodologies for estimating such impacts before work begins. Large infrastructure projects affect many aspects of life and there are well-established methods in economic appraisal, cost-benefit analysis and environmental impact assessment. Recently other types of assessment have emerged, including health and equality impact assessment. There is an emerging literature focussing explicitly on active travel impacts, much of which seeks to evaluate the impacts of new schemes on walking. However, there is little in the way of methods for assessing likely impacts of new schemes a-priori, let alone reproducible methods for assessing potential impacts before they arise. --> <!-- Motivated by the need for accessible and scalable tools to assess active travel impacts of new developments, this paper sets out methods for active travel impact assessment. It is based on the division of active travel impacts based on the geographic relations between the development and walking and cycling desire lines: Severance, when new infrastructure cuts across routes with high active travel potential; parallels, opportunities for constructing new routes parallel new infrastructure; and integration with existing transport services, where new or different active travel options are unlocked by new infrastructure. --> <!-- We find that the methods have the potential to identify and act on risks and opportunities associated with proposed developments down to road segment level. We conclude that new methods, such as those presented in this paper, have the potential to ensure that the impacts of major infrastructure projects on walking and cycling are properly accounted for before building begins. --> ## Contents - Context - The impacts of transport infrastructure - Methods - Results and discussion --- ## Research context - Work funded as part of the Propensity to Cycle Too (PCT) project - Focus: map spatial distribution of potential for cycling growth - At a national scale --- ## Academic context - Much research into 'where to build' -- - But little that is systematic/objective/reproducible -- - Very little at 'route network' level (Buehler and Dill, 2016) -- <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Tool </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Coverage </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Public access </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Level </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Propensity to Cycle Tool </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> England </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Yes </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> A, OD, R, RN </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Prioritization Index </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Montreal </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> No </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> P, A, R </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> PAT </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Parts of Dublin </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> No </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> A, OD, R </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Usage intensity index </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Belo Horizonte </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> No </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> A, OD, R, I </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Bicycle share model </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> England, Wales </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> No </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> A, R </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cycling Potential Tool </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> London </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> No </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> A, I </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Santa Monica model </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Santa Monica </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> No </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> P, OD, A </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- ## Central concept: desire lines <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/npct/pct-team/master/flow-model/od-data-leeds.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> -- - Origin-destination can be mapped as 'desire lines' - Cycling desire lines will shift with cycling uptake (Lovelace, Goodman, Aldred, Berkoff, Abbas, and Woodcock, 2017) --- ## Scenario shift in network load (source: [pct.bike](http://pct.bike/m/?r=avon)) <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/npct/pct-team/master/figures/rnet-lsoa-avon-clc.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/npct/pct-team/master/figures/rnet-lsoa-avon-dutch.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Limitations - No account of future developments -- - Currently limited to commuter cycling (funding to add schools) -- - No integration with other transport modes -- - Little account of existing/future infrastructure --- ## Policy context <img src="cs-infra_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The scale of HS2
-- - 330 miles of track (~£100k/m) - £55 billion estimated cost (~£40/person/yr during build) - 2026 - 2033 estimated completion dates (phase 1 and 2) <!-- (source: [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2)) --> --- ## The impacts of infrastructure are international - Roads and other major structures are being constructed on a huge scale worldwide - But there is little assessment on their active travel impacts - Credit: flickr user [thestuff](https://www.flickr.com/photos/thestuff/) ![](https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3041/2646783176_7ba553391b_z_d.jpg) <!-- it's in Tanzania --> --- ## Research into impacts of roads The extension of the M74 motorway = 'natural experiment': - People who live near motorways seem to be less physically active (Ogilvie, Mitchell, Mutrie, Petticrew, and Platt, 2006) - And more car dependent -- - Limited evidence of impacts on active travel ![](https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/53729000/jpg/_53729740_53729737.jpg) --- ## Research into impacts of roads II A recent review of impact assessment methods in the English context found that an increasingly wide range of methods and approaches were being used (Tajima and Fischer, 2013): - Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) - Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) - Health Impact Assessment (HIA) - Gender Impact Assessment (GIA) - Equality Impact Assessment (EqIA) - But overall not a huge amount of research in the area, particularly in relation to the impact on active travel: -- - "there is very little empirical data on the impact of road transport interventions", aside from injury reduction estimates (Thomson, Jepson, Hurley, and Douglas, 2008) --- ## Active travel impacts: a typology ![](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/npct/pct-team/master/infra-active/active-travel-options.png) A typology of active travel options. --- # Methods - Lewes-Uckfield line used as the study area - Online version of this map: http://rpubs.com/RobinLovelace/417218 <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="cs-infra_files/figure-html/lc-1.png" alt="Overview of the Lewes-Uckfield line with a 10 km buffer (blue). Width is proportional to the number of commutes." width="70%" /> <p class="caption">Overview of the Lewes-Uckfield line with a 10 km buffer (blue). Width is proportional to the number of commutes.</p> </div> --- ## Parallels (Credit: Philip McErlean, [CC](https://www.flickr.com/photos/64320477@N05/26962563542/in/photolist-H5AbMd-bmHtys-dj4dSc-Sxr1LN-g9QaLe-aj6osS-Vmn2Hi-drTqjZ-REBnZ2-oqzWJR-XygYk8-ey86yJ-RRsPyK-add2nu-oo97HL-Terhrw-nQAUzG-riVbre-q9wH2F-ePNB8p-jEZP1S-VMUuuc-bMRHFv-78dQhE-SeWFgk-X1dL4Z-TL49Em-XRRpbc-rhLmKz-SeWEbK-ngH1X9-nxuaC1-h1CoA4-XiryLb-W2FdM8-gornno-RMUcBN-TKLMbc-TP1YNc-UzXyjS-4QEVnh-mNtNkj-pNHTWM-fGj2CS-qev2ig-6fZCEZ-pdmJRp-QyZapf-S9tX7x-QyZp99) ) ![](https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7040/26962563542_611c676e45_z_d.jpg) --- ## Cycling potential parallel to the route 3 stage methodology to identify parallel lines: -- - Subset desire lines whose cetrepoints are near to the proposed route -- - Segment the proposed route -- - Calculate the angle of each route -- Then keep only lines parallel to proposed route segments --- ## Subsetting desire lines by centre point proximity <img src="cs-infra_files/figure-html/centre points-1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> Illustration of the 'line centre point' subsetting method --- ## Finding desire lines that are (roughly) parallel This involved the development of a new R function, `angle_diff()` Online version: http://rpubs.com/RobinLovelace/417326 <img src="cs-infra_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## What about perpendicular lines (severance)? The same method! <img src="cs-infra_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## 3: Access to stations (Credit: M. Morgan) - Divide each route into 3 <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/npct/pct-team/master/infra-active/stations.png" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## How to deal with long, windy routes? - Break the train line into segments <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/npct/pct-team/master/figures/route-sel.png" alt="Method of splitting the route into discrete segments using the line segment function from the stplanr R package (a) and cycling potential severed (b)." width="80%" /> <p class="caption">Method of splitting the route into discrete segments using the line segment function from the stplanr R package (a) and cycling potential severed (b).</p> </div> --- ## All methods together <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/npct/pct-team/master/figures/infra-selection-all.png" alt="Centre point-buffer (a), parallel (b), perpendicular (c) and station access (d) methods." width="50%" /> <p class="caption">Centre point-buffer (a), parallel (b), perpendicular (c) and station access (d) methods.</p> </div> --- ## Cycling opportunities and threats <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Scenario </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> N. commuters </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> N. cycling </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> % cycling </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Distance (km, Euclidean) </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baseline </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Touching buffer </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 53665 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1537 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.9 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.9 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Parallel selection </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2583 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 28 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.1 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 13 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Perpendicular selection </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1678 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.3 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.5 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cycling to stations </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 574 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 0.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.9 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Scenario </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Touching buffer </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 53665 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2568 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.9 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Parallel selection </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2583 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.4 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 13 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Perpendicular selection </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1678 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 36 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.2 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.5 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cycling to stations </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 574 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 49.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.6 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- ## Where next? ![](http://www.britishtramsonline.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/1.rotherham-mh-550x367.jpg) Source [britishtramsonline.co.uk](http://www.britishtramsonline.co.uk/news/?p=17639) --- class: small ## Thanks! 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