Contents

• Context
• The impacts of transport infrastructure
• Methods
• Results and discussion

Research context

• Work funded as part of the Propensity to Cycle Too (PCT) project
• Focus: map spatial distribution of potential for cycling growth
• At a national scale

Academic context

• Much research into 'where to build'

Academic context

• Much research into 'where to build'

• But little that is systematic/objective/reproducible

Academic context

• Much research into 'where to build'

• But little that is systematic/objective/reproducible

• Very little at 'route network' level (Buehler and Dill, 2016)

Academic context

• Much research into 'where to build'

• But little that is systematic/objective/reproducible

• Very little at 'route network' level (Buehler and Dill, 2016)

Central concept: desire lines

Central concept: desire lines

• Origin-destination can be mapped as 'desire lines'
• Cycling desire lines will shift with cycling uptake (Lovelace, Goodman, Aldred, Berkoff, Abbas, and Woodcock, 2017)

Scenario shift in network load (source: pct.bike)

Limitations

• No account of future developments

Limitations

• No account of future developments

• Currently limited to commuter cycling (funding to add schools)

Limitations

• No account of future developments

• Currently limited to commuter cycling (funding to add schools)

• No integration with other transport modes

Limitations

• No account of future developments

• Currently limited to commuter cycling (funding to add schools)

• No integration with other transport modes

• Little account of existing/future infrastructure

Policy context

The scale of HS2

The scale of HS2

• 330 miles of track (~£100k/m)
• £55 billion estimated cost (~£40/person/yr during build)
• 2026 - 2033 estimated completion dates (phase 1 and 2)

The impacts of infrastructure are international

• Roads and other major structures are being constructed on a huge scale worldwide
• But there is little assessment on their active travel impacts
• Credit: flickr user thestuff

Research into impacts of roads

The extension of the M74 motorway = 'natural experiment':

• People who live near motorways seem to be less physically active (Ogilvie, Mitchell, Mutrie, Petticrew, and Platt, 2006)
• And more car dependent

Research into impacts of roads

The extension of the M74 motorway = 'natural experiment':

• People who live near motorways seem to be less physically active (Ogilvie, Mitchell, Mutrie, Petticrew, and Platt, 2006)

• And more car dependent

• Limited evidence of impacts on active travel

Research into impacts of roads II

A recent review of impact assessment methods in the English context found that an increasingly wide range of methods and approaches were being used (Tajima and Fischer, 2013):

• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)
• Health Impact Assessment (HIA)
• Gender Impact Assessment (GIA)

• Equality Impact Assessment (EqIA)

• But overall not a huge amount of research in the area, particularly in relation to the impact on active travel:

Research into impacts of roads II

A recent review of impact assessment methods in the English context found that an increasingly wide range of methods and approaches were being used (Tajima and Fischer, 2013):

• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)
• Health Impact Assessment (HIA)
• Gender Impact Assessment (GIA)

• Equality Impact Assessment (EqIA)

• But overall not a huge amount of research in the area, particularly in relation to the impact on active travel:

• "there is very little empirical data on the impact of road transport interventions", aside from injury reduction estimates (Thomson, Jepson, Hurley, and Douglas, 2008)

Active travel impacts: a typology

A typology of active travel options.

Methods

• Lewes-Uckfield line used as the study area
• Online version of this map: http://rpubs.com/RobinLovelace/417218

Overview of the Lewes-Uckfield line with a 10 km buffer (blue). Width is proportional to the number of commutes.

Parallels (Credit: Philip McErlean, CC )

Cycling potential parallel to the route

3 stage methodology to identify parallel lines:

Cycling potential parallel to the route

3 stage methodology to identify parallel lines:

• Subset desire lines whose cetrepoints are near to the proposed route

Cycling potential parallel to the route

3 stage methodology to identify parallel lines:

• Subset desire lines whose cetrepoints are near to the proposed route

• Segment the proposed route

Cycling potential parallel to the route

3 stage methodology to identify parallel lines:

• Subset desire lines whose cetrepoints are near to the proposed route

• Segment the proposed route

• Calculate the angle of each route

Cycling potential parallel to the route

3 stage methodology to identify parallel lines:

• Subset desire lines whose cetrepoints are near to the proposed route

• Segment the proposed route

• Calculate the angle of each route

Then keep only lines parallel to proposed route segments

Subsetting desire lines by centre point proximity

Illustration of the 'line centre point' subsetting method

Finding desire lines that are (roughly) parallel

This involved the development of a new R function, angle_diff()

Online version: http://rpubs.com/RobinLovelace/417326

What about perpendicular lines (severance)?

The same method!

3: Access to stations (Credit: M. Morgan)

• Divide each route into 3

How to deal with long, windy routes?

• Break the train line into segments

Method of splitting the route into discrete segments using the line segment function from the stplanr R package (a) and cycling potential severed (b).

All methods together

Centre point-buffer (a), parallel (b), perpendicular (c) and station access (d) methods.

Cycling opportunities and threats

Where next?

Source britishtramsonline.co.uk